En mi caso siempre tengo mas en cuenta las predicciones de Thom Hogan
Fuente
http://www.bythom.com/2011predictions.htmA Big Up Year: overall sales and profits will rise continuously through the year, as Nikon is coming into the year with four winners (D3100, D7000, D3s, D3x) and three strong contenders that just need updating (D5000, D300s, D700). Add to that the new system (keep reading), the fact that this is a D4 year, and that Nikon's sensors seem to thrive in low light these days even with pixel increases, and the year looks good.
D800: announced by end of March 2011.D700-type body, new Nikon FX high resolution sensor fabbed by Sony
18-24mp
4-5fps
1080P/24/25/30, 720P/24/25/30/60
100% viewfinder
EN-EL15
MB-D12 grip
Yes, it's still coming. At Nikon speed (didn't anyone at Nikon ever watch Star Trek? Impulse Drive is the slow speed; we want engineering at Warp Speed ;~)
D400: announced late in the year (August or later). The real question is what changes from a D300s?
The D7000 16mp sensor, but with faster frame rates (both still and video)
A new focus sensor, likely a derivative of the D4's
1080P/24/25/30, 720P/24/25/30/60
Hard core pro body (more gasketing, possibly integrated grip)
Integrated GPS?
EN-EL15 battery?
Or, here's the alternative rumor: 24mp Nikon/Sony DX (yes DX) sensor in the D300s body with the D7000 metering and autofocus. This alternative doesn't make sense to me because it is literally at the limit of discernible resolution returns. Moreover, virtually all of Nikon's DX lenses will come up short in resolution, meaning we'd need another cycle of DX lenses. Makes sense from the "we'll make things that force them to buy again new" standpoint, but makes no sense at all when examined from a practical standpoint. Moreover, this would be the end of the line for DX as far as I'm concerned. Final note: if 24mp DX is the D400 alternative chosen, then the D800 probably won't appear in 2011. Nikon would be very confused trying to market a high megapixel D400, D800, and D4 at the same time. Thus, I'm sticking with 16mp, more hard core pro, as outlined above.
D5100: a necessary update of the D5000, probably coming in the first quarter
14mp Nikon sensor
D5000-like body and controls, but with the D3100 sensor
EN-EL14
D4: announced by August 2011
new Nikon 18mp sensor with at least D3-like capability, maybe better
completely new AF system
better metering system (upgraded from D7000)
Hard core video features (perhaps even 1080P/60)
Integrated GPS
USB 3.0
Updated UDMA specs
Big question: D4h and D4x, or D4 only? The high-megapixel FX sensor rumors swirling around Sony include a Nikon variant. The question is whether Nikon has moved up the pro "studio" camera to be introduced with the pro "performance" camera again (last time that happened was the D1h/D1x intro). I think the odds are good that they could, as the only real engineering difference is the sensor, and the sensor appears to be ready. Still, there's a big potential pileup in terms of marketing differentiation if Nikon pulls out all the stops (D400, D800, D4h, D4x). I can't see them doing more than three of those choices in one year, and even that is expecting them to be aggressive. I expect at most two high megapixel announcements (D4, D800).
Coolerpix: Yes, finally a larger sensor Coolpix. And it turns out to be the missing mirrorless camera the executives have been talking about. Should be launched by February, certainly within first four months of year.
Larger sensor, all Nikon, but it's not as big as DX. That means:
New lens system (call it MX for now), which means a 28-105mm equivalent, a wide angle prime, a 50mm prime equivalent, a 70-300mm or 80-400mm equivalent, maybe a superzoom equivalent
Video capability as per D3100/D5100
EN-EL16
So why is Nikon saying they reinvented the camera? I have two predictions here: unique optional EVF display (head mount) and a modest amount of user programmability. Wow, I don't believe I just wrote that. But yes, this is a camera you're going to interact with differently than ever before. Unfortunately, that's feeling a bit like the Coolpix with projector idea to me, but I'll keep my fingers crossed.
This is not a m4/3, NEX, or NX competitor, as it turns out. Well, it is in the sense that it is a small, mirrorless camera with interchangeable lenses. But Nikon seems to be shooting low in the market. Compact camera consumer low. That means very small size, even with some big focal length ranges. But it also means a small sensor and everything that brings to the table. I have to really wonder if Nikon got this one right. The things I do know about it seem like they're swinging at a user who doesn't exist. Again, Coolpix projector feeling...
Nikkors: Some of the missing Nikkors are no longer missing. By the end of 2011, the remaining missing Nikkors will all be here:
A 80-400mm f/4-5.6 replacement, with AF-S and a new optical design.
A 70-200mm f/4 addition.
A long Micro-Nikkor: may not be 200mm. Nikon may try to kill two birds with one stone again by making it 180mm and faster than f/4.
50mm f/1.2G. Why? I don't know.
A 24-70mm replacement. I'm guessing 24-105mm f/2.8 VR, and announced with the D4. This is an aggressive prediction as I've specified it. But the main prediction is being unnoticed: 24-70mm replacement. I don't think Nikon will sit on 24-70mm and just do something like add VR. I believe they'll take the opportunity to push the specs a bit. You can read that any way you'd like (22-70mm, 24-85mm, or my 24-105mm).
I'm a little worried that Nikon also got pulled into the 3D craze. That Coolerpix could be 3D or have a 3D option. Certainly there will be a Coolpix of some sort that does 3D in 2011, otherwise Picturetown 3D and Nikon's new 3D picture frame make no sense. But 3D, especially for stills, is a technology looking for users, not the other way around. I suppose this means we'll have a Coolpix with built-in 3D projector, too ;~). Yeah, those will sell like hot potatoes. Not!
To summarize what I think Nikon's interchangeable lens lineup will look like at the end of the year from top of the line to bottom:
D4 and D3x (though possibly D4h/D4x combo instead)
D800
D400
D7000
D5100
D3100
CP8000 (mirrorless)
Yes, this would mean that the D90, D300s, D700 go away. Yes, this would mean that the D3s sensor goes away. Yes, those are scary thoughts.
